It may be tempting to view recent declines in commodity prices as the end of the resource “supercycle”—the period of sharp price rises and heightened volatility since the turn of the 21st century. Yet rumors of the supercycle’s death are greatly exaggerated. Despite recent falls, commodity prices are still near their levels of early to mid-2008, just before the global financial crisis hit. (To track the movements in commodity prices over time, see the interactive, “MGI’s Commodity Price Index—an interactive tool.”) At a time when the world economy remains below full power, this phenomenon is striking, and a sign that the supercycle is alive and well. Our first annual survey of resource markets was conducted by the McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey’s sustainability and resource productivity practice. They found that a key reason for the price resilience appears to be higher marginal supply costs, which continue to rise for most commodities. While the world does not face any near-term absolute shortages of natural resources, the research finds that increasing supply will be a challenge. In particular, prices reflect three persistent forces: a challenging geology that makes it hard to extract resources and the technological supply-side innovations and resource-productivity improvements that counteract those challenges.
